COVID-19 Quarantine II

There hath no temptation taken you but such as is common to man: but God is faithful, who will not suffer you to be tempted above that ye are able; but will with the temptation also make a way to escape, that ye may be able to bear it. 1 Corinthians:10.13

The COVID-19 global quarantine is emerging as the largest collaborative life-saving effort of mankind in history. Homing, masking, and social-distancing have put world economies on hold or shrinking as never before, with a degree of volition uncommon during national crises. Fear is at the core of motivation, but orderly self-sacrifice so far marks the human response. The episode reminds the world (leaders and countrymen) that we share the same ship of destiny, sink or swim. Unlike world wars or global trade, comprehending common destiny seems to bring out nobler character.

One amazing consequence of global quarantine is a precipitous quieting of world activity, especially travel. For example, U.S. air travel dropped 94% during the Spring quarantine after the March 13 Declaration of National Emergency. The airline industry is most international and reasonable for restraint from spreading COVID-19. Other transportation modalities (land and sea) may not have curtailed as much, but automobile, bus, and rail surface travel probably are at lowest levels in modern times. To the degree that transportation contributes to global warming, idling during pandemic creates a serendipitous opportunity to accurately measure the degree to which our transportation style affects global warming. This de facto experimental design might decode temperature-travel relationships enough to relieve uncertainty, fear, and intractability of Global Warming Phenomena. Unchecked thermal escalation portends catastrophe for mankind, all living things, and habitat Earth, perhaps transcending all-out nuclear war.

Personally, I’ve noticed a cooler, wetter, windier Springtime 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Continuing frost alerts were delaying my annual gardening start clock. Did the global quarantine bring lower local temperatures? If heat product from international society were drastically reduced for a time, thermal profiles world-around would eventually decrement. Using Pittsburgh daily high, low, and average temperature data from April and May (a few weeks after the National Emergency was declared) I compared the 2020 profile to the 2019 profile for a six-week period presumably at the heart of reduced activity. In a matched-pairs statistical test, the 2020 thermal data ran 8 to 9 Fahrenheit degrees cooler. Student’s t-test of statistical significance for the difference was highly significant. Across the entire sample of 42 days, 30 to 35 days (71% to 83% of the sample) were cooler in 2020. This ratio of cooler days (vis a vis warmer or equal-temperature days) also was very highly significant in a binomial statistical test. Finally, with longest runs of cooler days in 2020 equaling 15 to 18, statistical significance in a binomial runs test also registered very high. Accordingly, the cooler Spring of 2020 can be judged a non-random weather change in magnitude, proportion, and pattern ascribable to quarantine.

What might a quarantine temperature drop of 9 F degrees mean amidst a global warming trend of 1.3 Fahrenheit degree per century? I reckon global energy consumption to be about 446 Quads (one Quad = one quadrillion British Thermal Units). The world’s transportation system uses about 151 Quads (34% of total energy). Although airline quarantine curtailment was reported high as 94%, I conservatively reckon ALL transportation quarantine curtailments to be perhaps 50% or 76 Quads. Under these assumptions, every 8 Quads of transportation energy foregone (conserved) is capable of reducing global warming one Fahrenheit degree.

How far does a Quad of energy transport world citizens? Some estimate global fuel efficiency at 17 MPG. If we assume gasoline the transportation fuel, its energy content is 100,511 BTU/gallon. Calculating from these data and assumptions, world travelers would have to forego 1.42 trillion travel miles to lower Mother Earth’s sensible temperature one Fahrenheit degree.

If only the U.S. exercised responsibility to bring down worldwide warming, how much might an American driver have to curtail his driving to lower sensible Earth temperature one Fahrenheit degree? The U.S. fleet is driven about 3.23 trillion miles annually. An average U.S. driver travels about 13,474 miles per year. Giving up 44% of annual travel (5,919 miles) might diminish global warming by one Fahrenheit degree.

Is this magnitude of mobility sacrifice feasible? I used to be a 15,000-mile-per-year suburban commuter-driver. Now I live and work from an urban residence and drive a private vehicle only 2,300 miles per year (I also internet-shop, walk, bus, and electric-scooter around a rather close-packed urban landscape). Longer range, I intend living more self-sufficiently on a rural Millennial Family Estate (mentioned in the previous Blog and detailed elsewhere on the GES Website). That lifestyle affords net-zero energy balance, draws mostly on in situ wind and solar (cool) power generation, and shrinks my personal vehicle travel obligation more so than urban living.

Of course, the whole world contributes to global warming, and each nation rightly incurs their fair-share of travel sacrifice. However, some nations will lead in travel rationing and others will follow if there is a good lead. The U.S. appears well-situated at Point. We occupy only 6.5% of Earth’s land area, host 4.4% of global population, yet consume about 19% of the world’s energy product. Accordingly, we use four times our fair world share, an amount equivalent to 18% of U.S. total solar insolation, even though we tap less than 1% of our solar insolation via solar collectors (about 78 giga-watts). There is plenty of “vertical” space to expand our generative power base without global warming consequences, and ample good reason to curtail our “horizontal” (international) reach for power to operate the Grand U.S. Society. Surely we are capable of making the biggest dent in global warming AND inspire others to follow by example.

Closing Words About the GES Millennial Estate . . .

The Global Environmental Service’s Millennial Estate habitat design can significantly leverage a lifestyle change to cool the Earth. Since it is a profit home rather than a debt home, it pays for itself within about five years. Accordingly, it is an open door to teen familyhood and senior familyhood, increasingly disowned segments of present American society. Easy-access Millennial Estate Homesteading can revive the America’s population of love couples write wonderful American love stories. There would be no more single ladies, single mothers, unloved born-or-unborn babies, divorces, loneliness, bullying, scams, identity theft, crime or cult false promises and vacant dependencies, prostitution, hyper-social diseases, etc. Dramatically tightening the Geographic Circle of Life Support brings huge energy savings, abiding health benefits, continuous love relationship reinforcement, and refreshing Spiritual focus. Food uncertainty and insecurity would be no more. Easy home-based labor, skill, and expertise substitutes for shrinking (inflation-free) income dollars in our mature, equilibrating society. Prospering Build-America growth work has already been performed by previous generations and is largely complete. Mostly maintenance work (perhaps 20% of growth-phase income) will be decorating the future labor horizon.

The Millennial Estate lifestyle home-centers working, food production, dining, physical fitness, healthcare, education, worship, training, power generation, and development in the arts. Spacious food gardens (the freshest fruits and vegetables you’ll ever eat), refined animal husbandry (free milk and a cow), aquaculture (net your dinner every time, any time), and avian food culture (chicken and eggs forever) ensure that the God’s precious Millennial Family will never again hunger or thirst (John:6.35). The Estate House makes liberal use of the world’s most durable, fire-safe materials (on par with modern monumental buildings). Sharecroppers can be engaged to help bridge the learning curve shift from industrial to agricultural, factories to vineyards, stopwatch tasking to season fruitfulness, paying big for beauty from others to patient artistry for personal masterpieces.

The Millennial Estate was conceived well before there was a COVID-19 epidemic. It was contemplated as a universal Micro-Garden of Eden for modern man and families. Analysis of present need for isolation and stationarity suggests that the Millennial Estate can be a worthy coping mechanism for pestilence . . . all pestilence. . . and global warming. You are encouraged to peruse the GES Website for design details on the Millennial Estate. See if it is direction God might have you and your family go. I believe it is an answer for post-industrial living that furnishes a limitless future you might want to pray about. Finally, you might listen to a few motivating songs (mostly written by others) on the Website: “I’d Like to Teach the World To Sing,” “Welcome Home Children,” “Good Green Earth,” and my grandmother’s favorite hymn “In The Garden.” As a Post Script, consider listening to the recitation: “Houses and Lands for God.” You probably would want to inspirationally seal your deal for Heaven On Earth with Our Gracious God, who owns many mansions and promises to prepare one just for you (John:14.2-4).

William C. Patterson, Ph.D.

May 2020

#Pestilence #HolySpirit